— Chintamani Mahapatra Is Afghanistan going to be the next Vietnam for the Obama Administration? The question has been raised in the United States and elsewhere in the light of the new presidency’s determination to carry on the fight against the Taliban and the Al Qaeda. This is clearly reflected in the open statements made by President Barack Obama and his officials as well as the recent decision to raise the level of US troops in that country. On the other hand, there is a powerful resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan as well as in Pakistan.
In fact, the fast Talibanisation of Pakistan, it’s government’s inability to reverse the process within its, territory, further erosion of Pakistani Army’s failure to extend its control over the North West Frontier Provinces and the Americans desperate efforts to seek alternative sources of civil supplies to the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan all indicate that difficult days are ahead for President Barrack Obama.
Although the Obama Administration has decided to prune down the military operations in Iraq and lay more focus on Afghanistan, it is yet to devise any new credible strategy to win this war. Rather, it has carried oil with its predecessor’s policy of drone attacks against the insurgents in Afghanistan and the border regions of Pakistan. Notwithstanding that it has created a new post of a Special Envoy and appointed veteran diplomat Richard Holbrook to tackle the problem in a more sustained manner. It has also promised more activities on the reconstruction front even while combating the insurgents. However, all these do not signal any bold new initiative to handle Afghanistan.
Absence of any novelty in Obama’s approach towards Pakistan and Afghanistan is reflected in the recent events, where the US Administration appears to have capitulated to Pakistan Government’s tricky steps. The US has not been able to extract fruitful cooperation from Islamabad to bring to Justice the perpetrators of the Mumbai terrorist attacks; where the dead included some US citizens as well.
The US response to the release of AQ Khan, the dreaded alleged smuggler and black marketer in nuclear materials, from House arrest is also uninspiring Soon after Obama’s special envoy left Pakistan, the Zardari Government restored Islamic legal practices in Swat–a beautiful valley that has gone under the control of the ‘Taliban. Musharraf took a similar step in Waziristan and achieved little. Now Zardari has begun his appeasement policy and the Obama Administration appears to have had no effective response.
Several US Administrations, particularly since Regan’s have pampered Pakistan, tolerated its counter-productive policies and unhealthy practices only to serve their own interest in the region. For example, President Ronald Reagan and senior Bush looked the other way when Pakistan was pursuing a clandestine nuclear weapon programme on the ground that Islamabad’s support to their Mahan strategy was crucial. President Bill Clinton ignored China’s continuing supply of nuclear programme-related equipment, such as ring-magnets, to Pakistan and backed the passage of the Brown Amendment. President George Bush bolstered Pakistan’s military arsenals in exchange of Musharraf’s support to America’s war on terrorists.
Will Obama adopt a new method to tackle the issue? His Administration certainly has come up with fiery statements on Pakistan. During his presidential election campaign Barrack Obama vowed to take action against Al Qaeda agents with or without Pakistan government’s cooperation, if actionable intelligence was available He criticized Bush for supplying weapons and equipment to the Pakistani military-, most of which were not suitable to fight terrorists. He advised Islamabad to stop considering India as an enemy and focus on the bigger threat, which is terrorism.
Tragically such strong statements have not been accompanied by ground action. There is already growing criticism in the US that instead of combating terrorism and returning home, good money of the taxpayers has been wasted oil reconstruction activities. Tile goal should have been well-defined and confined to tackling terrorism alone. In fact, during the early years of post-Taliban era, a large number of Afghans were positive about the United States. Today, majority of them are not upbeat of the US role in that country.
Besides, there are others who point out that the muscular approach to fighting the Taliban and Al Qaeda hasn’t borne fruit either. Last year alone, the US aircraft carrier, off the coast of Pakistan had launched about 1900 sorties to provide protection to both the US and British forces. It had even dropped bombs. This resulted in all increase in the number of civilian casualties, which further contributed to the growing anti-American sentiment in the country. Well, it’s over seven years since the Lis military intervened in Afghanistan but the net result is that there has been persistent drugs production and all expansion of Taliban’s influence in the country.
Significantly, Afghan President Karzai has increasingly been critical of the US and NATO role in his country. Sooner than later the Obama Administration is likely to distance itself from Karzai. It so happens that elections are due in August and in all likelihood the US would be looking for a new leader in Kabul. But, is it going to solve the problem” Musharraf America’s pet ally in the war on terror recently fell from grace and a new civilian government came to power in Islamabad. What has been happening since is an open secret.
The Obama Administration needs to realise that a surge in the number of military men call be no answer. Where the British failed to control in 50 years and the Soviets in 10, the Americans have come to try the same. More than seven years have passed and victory is no where in sight. Does Holbrook have a magic wand and can lie replicate a Bosnia-type solution? In all probability he will try to do just that. But Afghanistan is no Bosnia and Pakistan is not Serbia. However, there is similarity in one crucial aspect: Pakistan must be tamed to stabilise Afghanistan. What Obama requires is a novel approach to Pakistan and the Afghan problem will most likely be resolved.
The Taliban in Afghanistan has only one strong source of support and i.e. powerful elements in Pakistan. Al Qaeda has only one robust geographical presence and that is in the border regions of Pakistan. Unless the core issue is addressed, the periphery will keep burning.
Indeed, unless Obama takes bold step is Pakistan, Afghanistan may very well be his Vietnam. To get out of Vietnam, President Richard Nixon had to make peace with China. To get out of Afghanistan with respect, President Obama may have to wage a sophisticated battle against elements within Pakistan.–1NFA ASSAM TRIBUNE
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